By Carla Calleja, MBA, REB
The story behind the number
Picture a young couple who reserved a pre-selling condo five years ago. The monthly payment was easy, around the price of a family dinner out every week. Then the developer sends the turnover notice: the balance must now be paid, usually through a bank loan. Suddenly the monthly payment is three or four times bigger. Many buyers in that spot are now walking away.
That is exactly what Colliers Philippines is seeing. And it is a story every buyer, seller and investor in Metro Manila should understand this year.
The short answer
According to Colliers Philippines research director Joey Bondoc, about 9,000 condo purchases were cancelled in Metro Manila from January to September 2026: 5,200 were units still under construction and 3,800 were ready-for-occupancy units. Mid-income projects in Pasig accounted for a big share. The main trigger is the jump in monthly payments when the balance must be financed at turnover.
What is happening, in plain words
Context.ph (October 27, 2026), citing Colliers, reported that in-house payment schemes of about P10,000 to P12,000 a month can rise to P40,000 to P50,000 a month once a bank loan takes over. These cancellations often happen around the fifth year of the payment scheme. Some buyers do not qualify for a loan; others can qualify but cannot afford the bigger amortization.
The same report put unsold Metro Manila condo inventory at about 80,000 units, including about 32,000 completed homes, with vacancy at 24.6%.
On November 3, 2026, The Freeman (Philstar) quoted Anthony Leuterio, president of the Association of Real Estate Brokers of the Philippines (ABREP), who asked for the methodology and breakdown behind the figure, and for cancellations due to loan disapproval to be separated from other causes. He also noted that many cancelled units are later resold by developers. That is a fair point: treat the 9,000 figure as a market signal, not a full diagnosis.
Who is affected
- Pre-selling buyers nearing turnover, especially those who have not yet applied for a bank or Pag-IBIG loan.
- OFWs, whose overseas income can be harder for banks to verify.
- Investors who planned to rent out the unit to cover the amortization.
- Resale sellers, who now compete with cancelled and resold developer units.
- Buyers with cash or pre-approved loans, who may find more room to negotiate.
What to do now: a step-by-step checklist
- Know your turnover date and balance. Ask the developer for a written statement of account.
- Apply for loan pre-approval early. Talk to at least two banks and Pag-IBIG well before turnover. Pag-IBIG’s maximum housing loan is now P10 million, subject to your capacity to pay.
- Compute your real monthly after turnover. Include association dues, insurance and real property tax, not just the loan.
- If you truly cannot continue, know your rights first. Under the Maceda Law (RA 6552), buyers who have paid at least two years of installments are entitled to a cash surrender value of 50% of total payments, plus 5% a year after five years, up to 90%, and the developer must follow the law’s notice requirements before cancelling. Read my full guide: Can I ask the developer for a refund?
- Explore selling or assigning your rights before cancelling, with the developer’s consent. A licensed broker can help find a buyer.
- Buyers: ask about resale and cancelled units, compare total cost, and always check the developer’s license to sell and the unit’s documents.
What this means for you
- The cheap monthly during pre-selling is not your real monthly. Plan for turnover from day one.
- Cancelling is a last resort. Compare a refund under Maceda with selling your rights.
- For buyers with financing in hand, this market may offer better terms. Negotiate.
FAQ
Why do condo buyers cancel at turnover?
Mostly because the balance must be financed, and the bank amortization is much higher than the in-house monthly. Some buyers also fail to qualify for a loan.
Will I get my money back if I cancel?
It depends on how long you have paid and your contract. If you have paid at least two years of installments, the Maceda Law gives you a cash surrender value. If less, you get a 60-day grace period but no refund under that law.
Is this a good time to buy a condo?
High inventory can mean more choices and better terms for buyers who are financially ready. Still, choose based on location, total cost and your own plans, not just discounts.
Can I sell my pre-selling unit instead of cancelling?
Often yes, through an assignment or transfer of rights, subject to the developer’s rules and fees. Ask your developer in writing.
Ask Broker Carla
Facing turnover and not sure what to do? Comment TURNOVER on my posts, message me on Facebook at facebook.com/carlacallejabrokerphilippines, or email buyrentph@gmail.com. Send me your “Broker Carla, …” question.
This article is for general information only and is not legal or tax advice. For your specific situation, consult a lawyer or a licensed professional.
Sources
- Context.ph, “Condo payment shock fuels cancellations as Metro Manila inventory stays high” (Oct 27, 2026)
- The Freeman / Philstar, “ABREP: 9,000 condo cancellations in Metro Manila need closer scrutiny” (Nov 3, 2026)
- Republic Act No. 6552 (Maceda Law)
Cover image: AI-generated illustration / dramatization.
